This Team Will Be Just Fine

[Jonesy10]

Things have been pretty ugly lately, but this team is going to be just fine. The offense has been as bad as anyone could expect, Wieters hasn't played a game, Hardy has barely played and hasn't played well when he has, Tillman and Norris have been awful, Gausman has been hurt and was bad when healthy, Schoop has been hurt almost the whole year as well as Flaherty, the corner outfielders have been down right terrible, Jones ISO is down .50 points from what it's been the past 3 years, and yet after all of this the Orioles are just 3 games back of the first place Yankees who are playing as well as they absolutely can and are still just 2 games over .500 (sorry for the long sentence ).

The pitching has been really good the past month and will only get better once Norris/Tillman figure it out or Wright and/or Gausman solidify rotation spots.

The real problem has been the offense. Machado has been good and will only get better (lowest BABIP of career although he's hitting the ball harder than ever). Davis has been pretty good. Jones has been his usual self but better in that his strikeouts have gone way down and his walk rate has increased but worse in that his power has gone way down. If his power goes back up, which it should, he could have a super star season. Beyond these three it's not as clear as to what we have. Pearce and Snider should be playing every day. They are both pretty good hitters who have struggled so far due to reasons that should work themselves out. Snider's power has completely disappeared. With a career average ISO, his line this season would be .262/.342/.418. That's a solid hitter with a nice OBP. Pearce on the other hand has been hurt by a TERRIBLE BABIP. Almost .100 points lower than his career average, .130 points lower than last season, and .108 points lower than in 2013. His power is still there. He's clearly pressing though and a little change in fortune would help him relax at the plate and most likely bring his walk rate back up a little and strike out rate down a little to his career norms. We are fine at the Catcher position and 2B with Wieters/Joseph and Flaherty/Schoop. Hardy is fine at SS and Flaherty can take over for him if he's hurt. Young can DH against LHP's and Paredes can DH against RHP's for the moment. These are the lineups I'd like to see in a few weeks when Wieters and Schoop get back:

Vs. RHP's

3B Machado

RF Snider

CF Jones

1B Davis

LF Pearce

C Wieters

SS Hardy

DH Paredes

2B Schoop/Flaherty

Vs LHP's

3B Machado

LF Pearce

CF Jones

1B Davis

RF Young

DH Wieters

SS Hardy

C Joseph

2B Schoop

As Gordo has said, Josh Reddick would be a great addition. In that case you get rid of Paredes (unless he turns it around) and have Snider DH against RHP's.

But really things have gone pretty much as bad as they could thus far and the Orioles are just 3 games back. The teams in front of us, NYY and TB, have played as good as they can so far and are still barely better than the O's.

This team is going to turn it around and win the division again. Things looked this bad just this time last year too (26-27 with a -14 run differential after losing first two games in Houston). They just found ways to lose. But they got it together and won 96 games. This team is going to do the same thing. They have Wieters, Schoop, Norris, and Gausman coming back soon. They have a number of guys who had terrible offensive months and are only going to get better. This is a good team. Don't be fooled by one bad month. Lets have some faith.

[Jonesy10]

Last July, the Orioles had a terrible offensive month (nearly as bad as this May). They had an 83 wRC+ compared to 78 this May. They had a lower average, lower OBP, struck out more, and walked less. But hit more HR's. The month before that terrible month they had a 119 wRC+. The month after they had a 120 wRC+. Every other month the Orioles were roughly league average.

This shows two things. Bad months happen. Last year the Orioles sandwiched their two best offensive months of the season (by far) around their worst offensive Month of the season (by far). Just because the offense stunk last month doesn't mean they are bad, and will stink this month.

This also shows that the offense this year could be better than last season's, and definitely should be similar at the very worst. Last years offense didn't have a single month nearly as good as this April.

The offense will turn it around.

[El Gordo]

Not so sure. They need to do some things.

[Rene88]

Not so sure. They need to do some things.

Yep. But don't stop the orange-colored glasses group:)

These things are correctable but action is required.

One side note: funny how in the offseason people wanted Schoop at AAA and now they are begging for return, oh how things change.

Definitely a bad offseason. I thought Cabrera was a great pickup....oopsie.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Going Underground]

One other thing is the division looks really weak. Rays are a team with decent pitching and not great hitting. Have some pitchers hurt. Yankees are an old team with some pitching and hitting flaws. Great back end of the bullpen. Blue Jays pitching is not good. Red Sox fans ans reporters want to fire the manager and GM. Division is up for grabs. One good move by any of the teams could put them over the top.

[weams]

Yep. But don't stop the orange-colored glasses group:)

These things are correctable but action is required.

One side note: funny how in the offseason people wanted Schoop at AAA and now they are begging for return, oh how things change.

Definitely a bad offseason. I thought Cabrera was a great pickup....oopsie.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Why's there got to be a group. Why do we need to call out others? Can we leave them be please?

[weams]

These things are correctable but action is required.

One side note: funny how in the offseason people wanted Schoop at AAA and now they are begging for return, oh how things change.

Definitely a bad offseason. I thought Cabrera was a great pickup....oopsie.

Now, your post without that stuff? I was right there with that. Schoop to AAA. Cabrera to second. Flaherty as utility. Boy was I wrong.

[goldenglover]

The problem is when you rely on journeymen ball players to fill out 2/3 of your line up, you are bound to get this type of production all around. It's one thing to have guys like Pearce and Lough as pinch hitters or runners, but when you count on them every day their career norms will win out. There's absolutely no protection with our hitters and you have guys hitting out of order like machado at lead off.

I don't see much changing, most likely a series of streaks one way or the other but nothint is going to change until we get guys who can hit for average. We are a station to station team with no speed and rely not only on home runs but also doubles to score.

[BMann]

The defensive lapses are the biggest red flag of 2015, IMO. I don't recall watching the O's throw to the wrong base/let catchable balls drop/not turn easy DPs/etc. with the frequency that they have this year since the Bad Old Days. With the personnel in place, I don't see a lot of room for optimism that the D is going to get any better. Sure, Schoop's return would help... but be completely canceled out by Hardy going on the shelf for a month (should that happen; seems possible right now).

If they'd start hitting, maybe the mediocre defense could be covered up a little... but I don't think the pitching or offense is good enough to contend without stellar defense. And the 2015 O's just don't have that anymore.

[canonfaz]

I would be very surprised if Schoop plays again this year. We definitely can still win the division, but something needs to be done about the offense. Pearce better start to turn it on or I think we could see Nolan or Parmelee take his spot.

[neveradoubt]

Key word "Journeyman"

[MagicBird]

One other thing is the division looks really weak. Rays are a team with decent pitching and not great hitting. Have some pitchers hurt. Yankees are an old team with some pitching and hitting flaws. Great back end of the bullpen. Blue Jays pitching is not good. Red Sox fans ans reporters want to fire the manager and GM. Division is up for grabs. One good move by any of the teams could put them over the top.

This is the reason for optimism. We arent playing good baseball but CAN. I dont know that the other 4 teams can realistically hope to improve much. The question is, will we improve?

[Frobby]

The fact that the rest of the division is weak doesn't comfort me. Winning 86 games and taking the division title, then getting clobbered by a much better team in the postseason would not be a very satisfying season for me. Yeah, I know, once you are in the postseason anything can happen, but the odds aren't good that it will.

I expected our offense to be down a little from last year, due to the players we lost. And Jonesy10 is right to cite the stats about how the offense bounced back from a bad month last year. But right now you've got Wieters and Schoop on the DL, and Hardy and Jones banged up. That magnifies the effect of other players struggling. I think this may be a disappointing year for the offense even considering my somewhat lower expectations. I thought Pearce would come down to earth, but he looks like a completely different guy. Snider hasn't done as well as hoped. De Aza didn't fill the bill, and Lough continues to disappoint. There's just a lot of lackluster performances out there.

Look at some of our starters' outings:

5/01: Tillman 7 IP 2 R LOSS

5/05: Norris 7 IP 3 R LOSS

5/15: Chen 7 IP 2 R LOSS

5/16: Jimenez 7 IP 2 R LOSS

5/23: Wright 7 IP 0 R LOSS

5/26: Tillman 7 IP 2 R LOSS

5/28: Wilson 6 IP 2 R LOSS

5/30: Chen 7 IP 3 R LOSS

6/01: Jimenez 6 IP 2 R LOSS

I mean, that is flat out terrible to waste all that good starting pitching.

[UpstateNYfan]

The Wieters frenzy is a bit amusing. It is almost like when he had his debut a few years back. I hope he's fine, can contribute and be a spark plug. This team needs a lead off hitter, Machado is not. Manny saw, I think, 4 pitches in his first three AB's last night. I think this team is waiting for something to happen and it's not. They do not seem capable of putting together a 3 game winning streak let alone some 8 of 10 type streaks.

[Going Underground]

Strange year in the Al anyhow. The season ended today,Yankees,Astros and Twins are the first place teams. Wild card would be- Tigers and Royals. I doubt many had those teams winning the division. Over half the season to go, Injuries and trades and swoons on the way.